Nickel and Stainless Steel Daily Report

The US dollar briefly broke through 105, with German data highlighting global economic weakness and pressure on the majority of non-ferrous metals. Significant adjustment of nickel. The continuous growth of electrolytic nickel supply remains the main bearish trend in the midline. In terms of supply, the new production of nickel electrowinning continued to climb, and imports declined in July due to the substitution effect of new domestic production capacity. On the demand side, the latest 300 series cold rolling inventory of stainless steel has slightly increased overall, while the inventory in Wuxi has slightly decreased. Nickel sulfate is slightly stronger, as the raw material side is also supported by tight mining expectations, and spot purchases are just needed to boost. Recently, the demand for electrolytic nickel has been average, and the fluctuation of spot premium has narrowed. LME nickel inventory and Shanghai nickel futures inventory fluctuated, with no significant continuous accumulation of spot inventory and a month on month decline. The main contract of Shanghai Nickel is close to the upper edge of the range of 165000 to 175000 yuan. Currently, the willingness to break through near the upper edge is not strong, and the follow-up level of spot demand is not good. Below, focus on support around 165000 and 161000 yuan. Indonesia's nickel mines have resumed their old regulations, but the approval process may take a month, and ore prices continue to be strong. Follow up on the pace of capacity release, whether the current inventory continues to accumulate, macro sentiment, and the pace of Indonesian mining quota issuance. Stainless steel performance finishing. The overall inventory of stainless steel has decreased, with a slight rebound in the inventory of the 300 series. The rebound in Wuxi is relatively small, while in Foshan it is slightly higher. Due to the slowdown in mining quotas in Indonesia and the rise in nickel pig iron prices, stainless steel prices have been boosted. However, after the recent price rebound, demand is on the sidelines. With the introduction of domestic stable growth measures and attention to the improvement of actual demand in the future, although stainless steel production remained high from August to September, the month on month change is relatively limited. Recently, there has been a significant rebound in stainless steel warehouse receipts, and upward pressure is still evident. From the perspective of technical trends, the consolidation of stainless steel below 16000 has temporarily continued, with support around 15700 and 15300 in the lower view, and attention being paid to the willingness to break through the previous high point of 16300 above.