Market Expectations for Gold, Silver, and Ten Expectations for Limited Price of Stainless Steel

Donghai Futures: Limited Below Steel Prices Under Cost Support

The peak season consumption needs to be realized, steel mills have high production schedules, and the pressure of 300 series inventory accumulation is showing. Stainless steel has short-term correction pressure, but costs are supported. The peak season consumption is still difficult to falsify, and there is limited room for correction. Yesterday's data from Steel Union showed that the inventory of 300 series stainless steel 78 warehouses was 650100 tons, an increase of 1.49% compared to the previous week, while the inventory of 200 series and 400 series decreased. At present, the consumption of gold, silver, and gold during the peak season is not as expected, and the spot market transactions are still weak. The price of steel is limited under cost support. Just wait and see, waiting for multiple opportunities for a pullback.

Minsheng Futures: Short term forecast for strong fluctuations in stainless steel

Spot prices have slightly declined, and the market trading atmosphere remains cold. Downstream wait-and-see sentiment is relatively strong. The stainless steel basis has slightly declined and is currently at a low level. The stainless steel basis in the Wuxi market has decreased by 5 yuan/ton to 55 yuan/ton, while the stainless steel basis in the Foshan market has decreased by 5 yuan/ton to 55 yuan/ton. SS warehouse orders have increased by 2806 tons to 74829 tons. According to the MM data, the average factory price of high nickel pig iron, including tax, remains unchanged at 1175 yuan/nickel point. It is expected that supply will increase and demand will improve; Recently, mining speculation in Indonesia has led to an increase in industrial chain prices. Indonesia has changed mining approval to the old system, resulting in a slow approval speed; After the price increase, the profit situation of the industrial chain has significantly improved, the social inventory of stainless steel continues to rise, and the selling pressure in the spot market is gradually increasing. However, as the consumption peak season approaches and there may be support from policy expectations in the later stage, the short-term forecast is expected to be strong and volatile.

Ruida Futures: Suggest stainless steel to meet high and short periods

On a macro level, some Federal Reserve officials have made hawkish remarks, and market expectations for the Fed's November rate hike have increased; The Governor of the Bank of England stated that interest rates have not yet reached their peak and plans to shrink their balance sheet; The attitude of major central bank officials around the world suppresses market sentiment. Fundamentally, on the foreign side, the changes in mining industry policies by the Indonesian government continue to affect nickel ore prices, supporting stainless steel prices on the cost side; On the domestic side, on the supply side, the production of stainless steel increased in August, and the utilization rate of production capacity remained at a high level. The situation of stainless steel overcapacity still exists; On the demand side, although the market has expectations for gold, silver, and ten in a favorable policy environment, with terminal demand still sluggish, attention needs to be paid to whether policy incentives can be fulfilled in the future. In terms of spot goods, the transaction today did not meet expectations. Some specifications of 201 and 304 stainless steel were sold at a discount, but the transaction did not increase. Technically, the K-line of the SS2310 contract fell below all moving averages in one hour today, and the KD index crossed dead. It is recommended to operate in high and short short periods, with an entry point reference of 15770-15800 yuan/ton and a stop loss point reference of 15820-15850 yuan/ton. Pay attention to the operating rhythm and risk control.